Read this post, and spend a good amount of time asking yourself some questions about the three charts. Here are my questions (note that I don’t have the answers):
- Is China’s decoupling a good thing or a bad thing? For whom?
- What time horizon should we use to think about the answer to the first question? Why?
- To what extent is China’s reduction in exports as a percentage of GDP deliberate? Was it deliberate all along, or did they observe a trend, think through the consequences, and then make it a deliberate policy?
- Is China’s decline the share of global GDP growth a good thing for the world? Why?
- What about India, is it a good thing for India? If yes, along which dimensions? If no, along which dimensions?
- Does China count the last chart in this blog post as a victory or a defeat, or is it “too soon to tell”? Whatever the answer, why so?
- What are other data related stories from China that we have not been paying attention to?
I don’t have, as I said, the answers. And maybe I have missed asking some obvious questions. If you have material that will help me think through these issues, please do share.