RoW: Links for 8th January, 2020

Five links today to articles that were written recently about how things might pan out in 2020. Sticking one’s neck out and making predictions is difficult enough for relatively small issues – trying to guess where the global  economy might end up is something I would never want to do. Kudos to those who try!

  1. “As tempting as it is to dwell on current financial and macroeconomic conditions, doing so risks obfuscating a key element in the outlook for the future. There is a curious contrast between the relative clarity of expectations for the near term and the murkiness and uncertainty that comes when one extends the horizon further – say, to the next five years.
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    Moreover, in the years ahead, the United States, having notably outperformed many other economies, will decide whether to continue disengaging from the rest of the world – a process that is at odds with its historic position at the center of the global economy.”
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    Mohamed A. El-Erian wrote this article about the outlook for the global economy in the middle of December 2019, and well, things change quickly.
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  2. “The uptick in global growth for 2020 is driven by emerging market and developing economies that are projected to experience a growth rebound to 4.6 percent. About half of this rebound is driven by recoveries or shallower recessions in stressed emerging markets, such as Argentina, Iran, and Turkey, and the rest by recoveries in countries where growth slowed significantly in 2019 relative to 2018, such as Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. There is, however, considerable uncertainty surrounding these recoveries, especially when major economies like the United States, Japan, and China are expected to slow further into 2020.”
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    This was written in October 2019, by Gita Gopinath. The IMF’s prognosis is one of a subdued recovery for the global economy as the best case scenario.
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  3. “For the professional prognosticators and market mavens of Wall Street and beyond, there is at least one easy prediction to make about the next 12 months: Investors are going to earn less. A lot less, probably.“The double-digit returns of 2019 will be hard to repeat” is a phrase littering almost every investment outlook for global markets in 2020. Despite the trade war, political turmoil and more, virtually all major assets just posted a once-a-decade performance, and even uber-bulls know the chances of repeating the feat are slim.”
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    Bloomberg thinks financial markets the world over will struggle to put in the kind of performance that we saw in 2019. A good summary of a lot of global outlooks.
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  4. “In 2020 Asia’s GDP will overtake the GDP of the rest of the world combined. By 2030, the region is expected to contribute roughly 60% of global growth. Asia-Pacific will also be responsible for the overwhelming majority (90%) of the 2.4 billion new members of the middle class entering the global economy.The bulk of that growth will come from the developing markets of China, India and throughout South-East Asia and it will give rise to a host of new decisions for businesses, governments and NGOs. The pressure will be on them to guide Asia’s development in a way that is equitable and designed to solve a host of social and economic problems.”
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    The World Economic Forum points to the fact (?) that Asia will produce more economic output than the rest of the world combined this year.
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  5. “Just as the world economy was stabilizing after its worst performance in a decade, a U.S. airstrike in Iraq that killed one of Iran’s most powerful generals is a jolting reminder of how fragile the outlook remains.A tentative trade agreement between the U.S. and China had buoyed expectations that global growth would start to rebound this year. Business confidence has slowly been improving as key manufacturing gauges show signs of bottoming out.

    Now, the U.S.-Iran flare-up could nip any positive sentiment in the bud.”
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    But, well. Happy new year!

RoW: Links for 2nd October, 2019

I thoroughly enjoyed reading each of the five links today, both for how informative they were, but also for how thought provoking they were. A rare treat, this selection.

  1. James Fallows, from 1993 (!) on How The World Works.
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  2. Adam Mintner on Asia’s haze problem.
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  3. Tyler Cowen on his recent visit to Karachi.
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  4. Housing and the middle class in China.
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  5. I’m cheating a little, but this qualifies as an essay, right?

ROW: Links for 4th September, 2019

  1. “Culinarily, they are among the most homesick people I have ever met.”
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    Guess who? The last paragraph I enjoyed thoroughly, by the way
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  2. Sanjaya Baru on the (new?) geopolitics of Asia.
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  3. speaking of which
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  4. On aspirations.
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  5. Would you recognize the queen if you happened to bump into her?

Links for 4th April, 2019

  1. “Why does this matter? For one, a large share of the population (at over 50% urban this could be ~250 million people) is forced to live without urban basic services and is grappling with inadequate public service delivery. The slums and informal settlements in most of our cities are direct outcomes of failing to cater to migration at an earlier point in time. Even while we close our eyes to the reality of urban growth, cities and peri-urban areas are continuing to grow, leading to urban sprawl that goes well beyond administrative boundaries. This growth is haphazard and unregulated. Consequently, the quality of the urban fabric – measured by the share of land in streets, access to open space, formally subdivided plots and so on – declines.”
    Excellent, excellent article, and agree wholeheartedly with all of the ten points. The only (minor) quibble – I’d put number ten at number one. But if you want an easy to read and understand manifesto for rewiring India’s urbanization – this is an excellent place to start.
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  2. “Asia is already home to more than half the world’s population. Of the world’s 30 largest cities, 21 are in Asia, according to UN data. By next year, Asia will also become home to half of the world’s middle class, defined as those living in households with daily per capita incomes of between $10 and $100 at 2005 purchasing power parity (PPP).Since 2007, Asians have been buying more cars and trucks than people in any other region — by about 2030 they will be buying as many vehicles as the rest of the world combined, according to LMC Automotive.”
    A fascinating set of data points, and also a pretty nice infographic about economies and their ranking. An article that talks about when, exactly, the Asian century will start.
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  3. “The saddest truth about democratic politics is not that politicians don’t keep their promises, but that they make the wrong ones. This is a bittersweet truth we rediscover every election season. There is no connection between good governance and good politics. What voters want is not necessarily what is good for them or the country. And the manifestos of political parties are designed not to take the country towards progress, but to get that party to power.”
    Speaking of 1. above, this short read links together all of the other pieces related to 1. above – and all of them are, I’d say, worth reading. A manifesto for India, as it were.
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  4. ““We can trace our origins back to that event,” DePalma said. “To actually be there at this site, to see it, to be connected to that day, is a special thing. This is the last day of the Cretaceous. When you go one layer up—the very next day—that’s the Paleocene, that’s the age of mammals, that’s our age.” ”
    A truly beautiful, utterly mesmerizing read about the day the earth died. It’s hard to imagine anybody not wanting to read this. Via
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  5. “Mattis, who had studied philosophy in college, recognized similarities between The Matrix and the ideas of René Descartes, the 17th-century French thinker who wrote about man’s inability to know what is truly reality. “When I first read the script, I called them and said, ‘This is amazing! You wrote a script about Descartes! But how do I sell this thing?'””
    A very long article about a movie that had cult status about twenty years ago, and probably still does – The Matrix.