Links for 13th May, 2019

  1. “There should be limits, too, on the rights investors can sign away. In recent years, some companies — such as Smartsheet and Twilio — have done dual-class issues in which the extra voting rights expire after a certain number of years. These sunset provisions preserve the potential benefits of leaving initial control in the hands of founders, while avoiding the risk of creating a dynastic birthright. That’s a sensible compromise. The Securities and Exchange Commission, or the exchanges it oversees, should make such provisions mandatory.”
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    A very useful article to help understand how to think about IPO’s, Uber, Lyft valuations, mandatory disclosures from firms and how they try to get around the issue – and the excerpt above is yet another example of a favorite adage of mine: the truth always lies in the middle.
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  2. “We find that between 1300 and 1400 a 10 percentage point higher Black Death mortality rate was associated with a 8.7 percentage point fall in city population, but between 100 and 200 years later, the impact of mortality was close to zero. When we examine the spillover and general equilibrium effects of the Black Death on city populations, we similarly find negative effects in the short run, and no effects in the long run. Cities and urban systems, on average, had recovered to their pre-Plague population levels by the 16th century.”
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    A worrying article, especially towards the end, but two major takeaways for me: cities matter, and trade matters. But my major takeaway is there is (yet more) cause for worry.
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  3. “Unfortunately, the world’s most prominent specialists are rarely held accountable for their predictions, so we continue to rely on them even when their track records make clear that we should not. One study compiled a decade of annual dollar-to-euro exchange-rate predictions made by 22 international banks: Barclays, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and others. Each year, every bank predicted the end-of-year exchange rate. The banks missed every single change of direction in the exchange rate. In six of the 10 years, the true exchange rate fell outside the entire range of all 22 bank forecasts.”
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    Forecasts are useless. I cannot be more serious when I say this. Forecasts are useless. But foxes are better at the impossible then the hedgehogs – this article helps you understand these terms, and their usefulness. This blog is about becoming a better fox!
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  4. “Again, one can argue that the amount of redistribution should be larger. But it would be untrue to argue that a significant amount of redistribution–like doubling the after-taxes-and-transfers share of the lowest quintile–doesn’t already happen. ”
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    The always informative Timothy Taylor on taxes, their composition, their effectiveness and the resulting redistribution in the United States of America. Also, read the book that is reviewed in this article – the entire book is worth your time, but the chapter on income tax is what I was reminded of.
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  5. “When Paul Romer expresses an opinion, it is always worthwhile to listen because it is always well-considered. In an opinion piece in the New York Times, he puts forward a proposal to restore what he terms is the “public commons” of the provision of information in support of democracy. He actually puts forward two linked proposals: one for a target on targeted ads by digital platform companies and a proposal that the tax is progressive (which may be a check on dominance). The latter is interesting but I will just focus on the former here.”
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    I do not recollect if I linked to the Paul Romer piece that is linked to in the excerpt above – in case I did not, please go ahead and read it. The rest of the current article speaks about why Romer’s proposal is a good idea, but not necessarily implementable right away.
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Links for 26th February, 2019

  1. “He wished to insure “all persons against absolute want,” but this minimum subsistence income had to be made “less desirable than the condition of those who find support for themselves.””
    Before you click on the link, would you care to take a guess about who is batting for UBI? As the article points out, the idea itself isn’t new. Nobody has come up with a clearheaded way of implementing it, though. Also, have you heard of the flypaper effect?
  2. “Any restructuring of Venezuela’s debt will therefore need to be intolerant of holdout creditors of any type because even a marginal holdout community could pose a lethal threat to the prospects for the recovery of the economy.”
    Paging Ronald Coase. Read this article to find out how to think about debt, and debt resolution in international finance – and about how different points of views are inevitably going to emerge. How to reconcile these views? Paging Ronald Coase!
  3. “There is no $3 billion that NYC gets to keep if Amazon does not show up. That “money” was a pledged reduction in Amazon’s future tax burden at the state and local level.”
    In which Tyler Cowen explains to us why Amazon not setting up in New York is bad news – not good. You don’t usually think of the word lugubrious when you think of Professor Cowen, which is worrying.
  4. “The meekness of the pangolin allowed it to survive for tens of millions of years. They are ancient. But humans, the only creatures that can threaten them, have not been kind to them in return. Of the eight species of pangolin, four are listed as vulnerable, two as endangered, and two as critically endangered. They are the most trafficked animals in the world”
    I know very little – next to nothing, in fact, about the pangolin. But reading this article helped me both learn about the pangolin, and about how without some degree of protection, pangolins might well not survive. Also contains interesting snippets about how humanity has, over the ages, tried to make sense of its surroundings. This link is via The Browser – if you like reading, and have some cash to spare, I’d recommend subscribing.
  5. “India is interested in creating a reliable transport corridor that would link it with Central Asia, Russia and Northern Europe; however, the corridor would have to pass through Pakistani territory – and strained relations between New Delhi and Islamabad stand in its way. Similarly, territorial disputes between New Delhi and Beijing have put paid to the hope of a commercial corridor being developed through Chinese territory.”
    How might India develop better relations with the Central Asian nations. Most of us would struggle to even place all the Central Asian nations on a map – but this article helps us begin to understand why the relationship is important, and the challenges associated with developing it.