Argue More!
The point of arguing with an author is not to “win” the argument.
Quite the opposite. The point of arguing with the author is to work with the author.
Mihir Mahajan, regular reader of EFE, raised some questions about my post the other day on middle income traps.
It might help to take a look at the chart from the earlier post before you go through his questions.
Here are his questions:
- “The 1960 vs. 2022 nature of graph and the 1-6 ratings of income are quite confusing”
- “The “middle income trap” is too dense and you pointing to Nicaragua shows that the journeys of different countries could be going in different directions within that group”
- “The range of 1.75-3.75 on both axes is deceptive though. While the higher scales 4+ is rich in general, the relative gap between India/Nigeria and China is very high — not sufficient distinction there.”
- “Putting China in “middle income trap” is odd because it has gone from below 2 in 1960 to above 3 in 2022 (based on the axes).”
Before I get around to answering his questions, I have a question for you.
Do you have any questions of your own, for having read his questions? Go read my post again, stare at the chart, go over Mihir’s questions, and then think about whether you have any questions of your own.
I’ll answer each of Mihir’s questions below, but the point of this post is really what follows after, so please do stick around until the end!
- “The 1960 vs. 2022 nature of graph and the 1-6 ratings of income are quite confusing”
Yup, absolutely. It takes a while to figure out what is going on in an Economist chart, and while that is a problem, I’d argue that the rewards are usually worth it. By the way, if you are an Economist subscriber, you absolutely should read their newsletter on visualization and charts.
A useful principle to keep in mind is that when you look at a chart, train yourself to not look at the data first. First be clear about what is on the axes (all of them). Then be clear about the title of the chart. It helps to take a look at the source of the data. Then start taking a look at the chart itself.
Homework: what does “income per person, relative to the United States, log of %” mean? Can you explain this phrase to somebody else? If you can’t, you haven’t understood it well enough! - “The “middle income trap” is too dense and you pointing to Nicaragua shows that the journeys of different countries could be going in different directions within that group”
The central square in the chart is too dense, but that’s just fine by me. Why? Because the outliers are then even more worthy of analysis. If you cannot “make it” into the central square, then you’re even more special relative to that crowded space.
Botswana is special because it was poor in 1960, and is not just middle-income today, but on the verge of breaking into the high-income space. That’s a special story!
Argentina, on the other hand, is special for the wrong reason. It was a high-income country back in 1960, but has since slid down into a middle-income country grouping.
Both of these countries, within the context of this chart, also help you understand Mihir’s second comment here. Because this is a static image, and because we’re comparing two different points in time, we don’t get a sense of the trajectory of a country. Botswana is on the way up, and Argentina has slid down – but you need to know this separately. This isn’t clear from looking at the chart.
To be clear, this isn’t a criticism of the chart, but rather a way of recognizing that your work as a student doesn’t stop for having studied the chart. Au contraire, this chart should spur you to read more about whichever country seems interesting to you.
“Tell me more about Botswana’s growth story over the last sixty years or so. Assume I know very little about Africa in general, and Botswana in particular. Your answer should include Botswana’s internal politics, key leaders, relationship with her neighbors and with the superpowers during the cold war, her natural resources and some background on major ethnic and religious groups in Botswana” - “The range of 1.75-3.75 on both axes is deceptive though. While the higher scales 4+ is rich in general, the relative gap between India/Nigeria and China is very high — not sufficient distinction there.”
Log scales can be tricky, and the best way to understand this is by thinking about how earthquakes are measured. And yes, Mihir is spot on about how you need to keep this in mind. The lower ends of the middle income square (left to right and bottom to top) actually cover very large ground, and countries in the left-bottom corner are very different from countries in the right-top corner of the middle square. Dividing the middle square into a 3×3 grid would be a great idea. (Hi, The Economist. Hint, hint) - “Putting China in “middle income trap” is odd because it has gone from below 2 in 1960 to above 3 in 2022 (based on the axes).”
It’s their chart to make, and ours to interpret as we see fit, so while I get where Mihir is coming from, I’m fine with both the boundaries of the middle square, and with the framing that The Economist has used. China’s growth trajectory over these past sixty years or so has been fantastic, but the question is about whether it can keep that break-neck growth rate up going ahead. A very wise economist won a Nobel Prize for coming up with a simple model that says “Nah, probably not”. So while I understand Mihir’s point, I can see the logic used by The Economist as well. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but macro is hard.
But now that I’ve replied to his comments, let me come to the main point of today’s post.
What stops us from asking questions as we read? Why, that is, do we read unquestioningly?
Maybe that’s too specific a question, so let me step back and frame it more generally.
Why don’t you argue more often with whatever you’re reading?
Make sure you understand where they’re coming from, and that you understand their line of reasoning, to the extent possible. And also that you understand how and why they reached the conclusions they did. You don’t have to agree with either the line of reasoning or the conclusion, to be clear.
But asking smart, probing questions about both the premises and the conclusions can help you become a much more engaged reader. This, in turn, can help you to both understand what you’re reading, and to decide whether you agree with the author.
It’s a rare old skill, and I’d encourage you to apply it, always, while you’re reading.
So please, disagree more with what you read on my blog, and let me know of your disagreements.
Help me learn better!
EconForEverybody 
One question I had about the middle-income trap is this: the countries’ progress is being graded relative to the US. Is that moving target really the right yardstick? The result of this is that China’s phenomenal progress is being labelled a “trap”; does that really align with what someone understands by the phrase “middle-income trap”? How different would this picture look if it was “Income per person, relative to world average, log of %”?
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What a lovely question 🙂
I suppose any benchmark will have limitations (world average will mask so much, plus the skewness within the data will be a problem). Maybe do a series of comparisons, rather than just one?
Re: the middle income trap itself, yup, Noah made a similar point, which I referred to in my first blogpost, and I agree completely.
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