Prof. Anurag Asawa at GIPE shared this link, which is worth reading in full. There is a PDF at the end, which can be freely downloaded, with more information.
What did we find?
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Community transmission of COVID-19 in India most likely started in early March.
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National containment is no longer an option in India. However, state or local (temporary) containment and mitigation is the best option.
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At baseline (without interventions), between 300 and 400 million Indians are likely to be infected by July. Most of these cases will be mild. At the peak (somewhere between April and May 2020), 100 million individuals will be infected. Of these, approximately 10 million will be severe and about 2-4 million will require hospitalization. This is the most critical period.
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Generalized social distancing can, in theory, reduce this peak load by as much as 75%, although this may be difficult to enforce in India.
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Our model is sensitive to hospital outbreaks of COVID-19 induced by admission of infected patients into hospitals. There is a need for large, temporary hospitals to handle this patient load over the next three-month period. Secondary, hospital-based transmission fuels the epidemic.
Mihir Bapat, a CA based in Bombay, sent this link, which is worth reading in full. Yes, 92 pages, but still, worth reading in full.
My thanks to both!
EconForEverybody 